Saturday, December 25, 2010

Gambler's Fallacy

Top 10 Common Faults In Human Thought


How many times have you played rock, paper, scissors and used scissors a lot of times in a row and then changed because you think that you will have a better chance? How many times have you flipped a coin (assuming an ideal throw), gotten heads five times and each time thought, "It was heads before, it has to be tails now." Your reasoning is WRONG.

The idea is that there are certain events that are independent of each other. For example, each and every die throw is independent. So, just because you rolled a six three times doesn't mean anything. It doesn't mean that you'll throw another six and at the same time it doesn't mean that you won't. The chance of you throwing a six is still 1/6: no more, no less.


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